October 2013 is not quite on the books yet, but we thought that a sneak peek at the data might help us understand whether it will be a Trick or a Treat when the books do close on this month.
Not surprisingly, Conventional transactions continue to increase their share relative to all Cash transactions. We have charted transactions by type going back to 2006 in the infographic below:
Now let’s take a look at the state of the market today (and over the past several months) with an overlay comparing directly to last years activity.
Please note that this data is from the CCAR SmartStats application showing all activity recorded in Contra Costa County up to Oct. 31, excluding REO/Short Sale activity. You can see the full 18 month time frame displayed, with the comparative timeframes highlighted.
While new listing activity is somewhat muted, continuing a (seasonal) downward trend for the last three months:
Pending listing activity is still strong, experiencing a healthy spike in October after two months of declines, essentially bucking a seasonal trend as seen when compared to 2012.
While pending activity spiked in October, Sales continue a steep decline, in some part due to uncertainty in the Federal Government and Financial Sectors:
Days on Market (DOM) shows a fourth straight month of increases, which at this time of year can also be understood as a seasonal trend:
Percent ‘Current Price’ to Sale Price appears to be leveling off after a consistent decline from the highs of the Spring of 2013. Reduced inventory and buyers coming off the fence after the Government shutdown could explain this trend.
Average Sales Price is where things get really interesting! After 3 straight months of steadily declining prices, October numbers not only levelled off, but climbed in spite of downward seasonal pressure for detached homes.
While Condo/Townhome prices, which seemed largely insulated from the price declines over the last 3-4, show a dip in October, detached homes median prices mirror the average sales price increase.
This behavior is in line with expectations of a local economy which is still growing, and appears to highlight the fact that the spring of 2013 was not a housing bubble in the offing, but a rapid correction from prior lows, followed by a cooling off period. All things being equal, this appears to bode well for a strong fall and even stronger 2014 market.
The last 6 months we have seen some of the most interesting market activity in recent memory. Interesting in an uplifting vein, as opposed to the equally interesting yet frightening days of 2006-07. Below is some market summary data from the last 6 months.
In the last 6 months there were 10453 total detached properties listed in Contra Costa County that were not withdrawn or cancelled.
- 1153 are currently active
- 4763 properties are pending
- 4537 properties were sold
- The average sales price was $664,729
- the median sales price was $537,000
- the current average DOM (Days on Market) for active listings is 39, for pending listings is 22, and for sold listings is 20
- 233 are currently active
- 1269 properties are pending
- 1212 properties were sold
- The average sales price was $378,669
- the median sales price was $350,000
- the current average DOM (Days on Market) for active listings is 24, for pending listings is 18, and for sold listings is 16
We have created a set of bell curves based on your search criteria and divide it into 25%, 50%, and 75% percentiles. We do this in order to to give you a better sense of how different listings fared for days on market and list-to-sale price ratios. The bottom 25% percentile is less than or equal to $361,000, the 50% percentile is between $361,000 and $862,000 and the top 75% percentile is equal or more than $862,000.
In the last 6 months there were 2714 total Condo/Townhouse properties listed in Contra Costa County that were not withdrawn or cancelled.
Copyright 2013 Contra Costa Association of REALTORS® – All rights reserved, reprint with attribution.
All information deemed accurate but not guranteed. Safe harbor for forward looking statements. Always consult with a REALTOR® before buying or selling a home!
By CCAR staff Michael Seguin